Lyn Alden, a well-known market research analyst, and investment strategist has stated she anticipates Bitcoin would have a difficult year forward, with both the risk of a capitulation event.
Alden recently told Stansberry Research that she really is “never especially enthusiastic” about Bitcoin in 2022.
Alden was calculating the current price trend for Bitcoin just using Purchasing Managers’ Indication (PMI), which is defined as “an index of the prevalent direction of economic developments in the manufacturing and service sectors.”
According to The Daily Hodl, Alden stated:
“Bitcoin’s big bullish runs throughout history – there are about four of them: 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2020.” Those occurred amid rising PMI conditions, signaling economic expansion, but have been typically unfavorable towards Bitcoin’s price behavior.
“At the moment, some investment funds view Bitcoin as a risk asset because to its volatility, and I’m not very enthused about the calendar year 2022.”
Lyn Alden Bearish on Bitcoin in 2022
Thus according to Moody’s Analytics, the US PMI was presently approximately 57.6, representing a roughly 10% decline since March 2021.
Alden feels that what a declining PMI, paired only with Fed’s present aggressive stance, might lead to a Bitcoin capitulation event:
“Whether there is some economic turmoil, we would see a capitulation akin to March 2020 or the fourth quarter of 2018.
When the Fed was still attempting to tighten inside the face of dropping PMIs,” says the former Fed chair Ben Bernanke. We could easily see a breach of less than $30,000 in that type of surrender circumstance, he argues.
Alden, on the other hand, remains a long-term believer in Bitcoin: “Whenever I look at many years, say three to five years.
I’m still structurally positive about Bitcoin when I look around the ecosystem, what’s occurring here on Lightning Network.” Every cycle, infrastructure is developed to accommodate new sorts of capital.”
About Investment Strategist Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden seems to be the creator of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, a market researcher that serves hundreds of thousands of individual investors and financial professionals.
Lyn specializes on value investing with a global macro overlay, such as currency differentials, monetary policy movements, and equities values.